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社會學國際頂刊

Demography

（《人口學》）

的最新目錄與摘要

About Demography

Demography (《人口學》)是the Population Association of America的旗艦期刊。作為一本人口學期刊，Demography 自1964年創(chuàng)刊以來便發(fā)表來自人類學、生物學、經(jīng)濟學、地理學、歷史學、心理學、公共衛(wèi)生、社會學和統(tǒng)計學等學科領域的高質(zhì)量原創(chuàng)研究。該刊涵蓋了各種各樣的人口研究方法，涉及全球各地的人口問題，關(guān)注過去、現(xiàn)在以及面向未來的人口研究。

Current Issue

Demography 為雙月刊，最新一期（Volume 62, Issue 1 February 2025）的內(nèi)容，分為“Research Notes”“Articles”兩個欄目，共計14篇文章，詳情如下。

Contents

Research Notes

Demograghy 62(1), 2025

Two Decades of Child Welfare System Contact in the Global North: A Research Note on Trends in 44 Countries

Christopher Wildeman; Alexander F. Roehrkasse; Alexandra Gibbons; Sarah Sernaker; Liza Becker; Peter Fallesen

Child maltreatment and child welfare system contact are both associated with an elevated risk of adverse outcomes in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. Yet, data on variation in system contact are available for only a handful of countries, limiting knowledge about the societal correlates of system contact. As reported in this research note, we identified, collected, and harmonized administrative data on child welfare agency investigations, confirmed maltreatment, and placements into out-of-home care for 44 countries in the Global North. We analyzed 15 sociodemographic factors commonly associated with child maltreatment and child welfare system contact. Results support three core conclusions. First, data are much more available on late-stage system contact (e.g., foster care caseloads) than for early-stage system contact (e.g., investigations). Second, whereas early-stage contact tended to be on the rise in most countries, late-stage contact was stable or declining. Cross-national variation in these trends was generally less substantial than cross-national variation in levels of child welfare system contact, indicating relatively stable cross-national differences. Third, cross-national variation in out-of-home care largely reflected, but was not reducible to, regional and sociocultural variation: we find little evidence for universal drivers of foster care caseloads across the Global North.

Research Note: New Estimates of Immigrants’ Self-employment From Linked Tax Records

Christopher R. Tamborini; Andrés Villarreal

Self-employment plays a crucial role in immigrants’ economic assimilation. Previous studies examining immigrants’ self-employment relied on estimates obtained from national surveys, which could contain measurement error. In this research note, we compare estimates of immigrant men's self-employment obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS) with those from data linking respondents to their tax records. Our findings indicate that the CPS substantially underestimates the immigrant–native gap in self-employment. In some cases, the rate of self-employment for immigrants from administrative data is nearly double that obtained from survey data alone. Measurement error also appears to distort estimated differences in self-employment among immigrants by race, ethnicity, and national origin. The results highlight the greater importance of self-employment for the labor market integration of immigrant men than was previously known on the basis of survey data alone.

Articles

Demograghy 62(1), 2025

Caste Inequality in Occupational Exposure to Heat Waves in India

Arpit Shah; Sneha Thapliyal; Anish Sugathan; Vimal Mishra; Deepak Malghan

India is a leading global hot spot for extreme heat waves induced by climate change. The social demography of India is centered on its caste hierarchy rooted in endogamous occupational groups. We investigate the association between caste and climate inequality by studying occupational exposure during the 2019 and 2022 heat waves. We combine high spatiotemporal resolution heat stress information from satellite imagery with a large nationally and regionally representative labor force survey with rich socioeconomic and demographic information (n > 100,000 individuals). The slope of the heat stress dose–workhours curve corresponding to the marginalized caste groups is between 25% and 150% steeper than that for dominant caste groups for UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index) thresholds between 26°C and 35°C. Our models control for other economic-demographic confounders, including age, gender, education, and economic status, besides political-geographic controls and fixed effects. Our robust evidence for the association between caste identity and exposure to heat stress shows why adaptation and mitigation plans in India must account for the hierarchical social order characterized by the “division of laborers” along caste lines rather than the mere division of labor. Methodologically, our analysis demonstrates the utility of pairing satellite imagery and detailed demographic data.

Flooding, Sociospatial Risk, and Population Health

Ethan J. Raker

Climate change and population settlement patterns are altering the severity and spatial dimensions of flooding. Despite associational evidence linking flood exposure to population health in the United States, few studies have used counterfactual strategies to address confounding or examined how sociospatial determinations of risk, such as floodplain delineation, affect well-being. Using the case of Hurricane Harvey, I leverage novel, repeated cross-sectional health survey data from Houston immediately predisaster (N?=?2,540) and six to nine months postdisaster (N?=?2,798), linked to local flood inundation and floodplain data. Difference-in-differences models show that the probability of psychological distress and fair/poor health increased significantly in the flooded treatment group, with mixed evidence on unhealthy mental health days and no change in unhealthy physical health days. Triple-difference estimators further reveal buffered mental health adversity for those in flooded areas with high floodplain areal coverage relative to little or no floodplains. Descriptive analyses of mechanisms suggest that floodplain coverage did not differentiate individual-level disaster exposure but increased the likelihood of disaster preparedness and evacuation. This article offers insights into the climate–health nexus empirically by using a causal framework to improve credibility and conceptually by demonstrating how an underexamined dimension of vulnerability—sociospatial risk determinations—can stratify population health.

The Demographic and Socioeconomic Consequences of Restricting Access to Marriage for Young Immigrant Women in Denmark

Bojana Cuzulan; Marie Louise Schultz-Nielsen; Peter Fallesen

In July 2002, Danish reforms limited the marriage opportunities for all Danish and non–European Union (EU) citizens younger than 24 living in Denmark who wished (or whose parents wished for them) to marry someone from outside the EU. Before the reform, more than 80% of first- and second-generation immigrants from outside the EU married spouses from their parents’ origin countries; the reform drastically changed their marriage market. We examine the policy's effects on subsequent marriage behavior, the transition to motherhood, human capital accumulation, and labor market activities using full-population administrative data on 578,380 Danish-born first- and second-generation non-EU immigrants born in 1972–1990 and a difference-in-differences design. We find that the policy delayed marriages among individuals with an immigrant background, extended premarital cohabitation, changed the composition of spouses, and delayed and decreased in-wedlock fertility. Finally, the duration of obtained formal education increased. Our results emphasize that reforms constraining access to external marriage markets can have lasting impacts on marriage demographics among immigrants.

Smoke's Enduring Legacy: Bridging Early-Life Smoking Exposures and Later-Life Epigenetic Age Acceleration

Daniel Ramirez; Elena Povedano; Aitor García; Michael Lund

Current literature states that early-life exposure to smoking produces adverse health outcomes in later life, primarily as a result of subsequent engagements with firsthand smoking. The implications of prior research are that smoking cessation can reduce health risk in later life to levels comparable to the risk of those who have never smoked. However, recent evidence suggests that smoking exposure during childhood can have independent and permanent negative effects on health—in particular, on epigenetic aging. This investigation examines whether the effect of early-life firsthand smoking on epigenetic aging is more consistent with (1) a sensitive periods model, which is characterized by independent effects due to early firsthand exposures; or (2) a cumulative risks model, which is typified by persistent smoking. The findings support both models. Smoking during childhood can have long-lasting effects on epigenetic aging, regardless of subsequent engagements. Our evidence suggests that adult cessation can be effective but that the epigenetic age acceleration in later life is largely due to early firsthand smoking itself.

Government Restrictions During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Depressive Symptoms Following Widowhood

Zachary Van Winkle; Bartholomew Konechni

Spousal loss is associated with an immediate increase in depressive symptoms. However, the consequences of widowhood for symptoms of depression during the COVID-19 pandemic have remained largely unexplored. In this study, we use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and fixed-effects regression modeling to address three research questions. First, how have depressive symptoms changed over time in 10 European countries for older adults by marital status and spousal death timing? Second, do the surviving spouses of persons who died during the pandemic face greater increases in depressive symptoms compared with adults widowed before the pandemic? Third, to what extent did the strictness of government restrictions moderate the pandemic widowhood penalty for symptoms of depression? We find that depressive symptoms increased dramatically for those widowed during the pandemic compared with widowed adults before the pandemic. In addition, the pandemic widowhood penalty does not apply to all those who lost their partners during the pandemic; it applies only to those who lost their partner when governments were enforcing stay-at-home orders. Our findings support the notion that the COVID-19 pandemic and stringent government restrictions exacerbated risk factors and hindered protective factors that affect older adults’ resilience to spousal death.

Trends in the Developmental Gradient in Mothers’ Parenting Time by Maternal Education, 2003–2019

Melody Ge Gao

Educational disparities in mothers’ parenting time have implications for socioeconomic inequality in children's resources and later life attainment. The reproduction of inequality could be more consequential if educational disparities are most pronounced at child ages when a specific parenting need is more developmentally important. Following recent findings suggesting a general reduction in the educational gradient in mothers’ overall parenting time, this study aims to determine if this convergence extends to the developmental gradient in parenting. Using the American Time Use Survey from 2003 to 2019 (N?=?34,232), this study finds that educational disparities in mothers’ parenting time have narrowed in accordance with the developmental gradient. Economic, cultural, and demographic changes that might contribute to the narrowing trends are discussed. These findings offer an updated understanding of educational gaps in maternal parenting strategies, with potential impacts on the intergenerational transmission of (dis)advantage.

The Childbearing of Immigrants Who Arrived as Children: Understanding the Role of Age at Arrival for Women and Men

Ben Wilson

It is well-known that childbearing is associated with age at migration, but most research has focused on foreign-born women who migrated as adults. Much less is known about male immigrants or immigrants who arrived as children, despite the importance of studying these groups to understand theories of adaptation and socialization. This study addresses these gaps with a case study of Sweden, using longitudinal whole-population data to analyze the role of age at arrival in determining childbearing. The results suggest that age at arrival affects fertility across the childbearing life course, although there is little evidence of critical ages at arrival. These results hold for women and men, particularly for immigrants from higher fertility origins, with more ambiguous results for immigrants from lower fertility origins. The main findings also persist after examining sources of selection and reverse causality using sex-specific family fixed-effects models and separate analyses for specific countries of birth. Therefore, the study provides evidence of an underlying process of childhood socialization, followed by adaptation, that is common for women and men who migrate. Theoretical implications are discussed, including the need for further work on the determinants and mechanisms of adaptation.

Prenatal Care, Son Preference, and the Sex Ratio at Birth

Rebeca Echavarri; Francisco Beltrán Tapia

The sex ratio at birth (SRB) in Spain jumped abruptly in the late 1970s and temporarily reached values of more than 109 boys per 100 girls in the early 1980s. This article shows that health care system expansion increased the likelihood of male births in Spain between 1975 and 1995. By facilitating the delivery of preterm and dystocic babies and improving overall maternal conditions, these developments increased the survival chances of male fetuses, who are biologically weaker than females. However, biological factors alone cannot explain the biased SRB. Our analysis shows that the availability of prenatal sex determination technologies and a strong son preference nurtured by the Francoist dictatorship fostered gender-biased behaviors that resulted in an excessively high SRB. The lack of evidence on sex-specific abortions suggests that women took better care of themselves when carrying a son. The spread of gender-egalitarian values brought about by the end of the dictatorship and the transition to democracy undermined son preference and returned the SRB to normal levels.

Hidden Heterogeneity: How the White Racial Category Masks Interethnic Health Inequality

Jen'nan G. Read; Fatima G. Fairfax

Inequality research has often used non-Hispanic Whites as the reference category in measuring U.S. racial and ethnic health disparities, with less attention paid to diversity among Whites. Immigration patterns over the last several decades have led to greater ethnic heterogeneity among Whites, which could be hidden by the aggregate category. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey (2000–2018), we disaggregate non-Hispanic Whites by nativity status (U.S.- and foreign-born) and foreign-born region of birth (Europe, Former Soviet Union, and the Middle East) to examine diversity in health among adults aged 30+ (n?=?290,361). We find that foreign-born Whites do not have a consistent immigrant health advantage over U.S.-born Whites, and the presence of an advantage further varies by birth region. Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) are particularly disadvantaged, reporting worse self-rated health and higher rates of hypertension (high blood pressure) than U.S.-born and European-born Whites. Middle Eastern immigrants also fare worse than U.S.-born Whites but have health outcomes more similar to European immigrants than to immigrants from the FSU. These findings highlight considerable diversity in health among White subgroups that is masked by the aggregate White category. Future research must continue to monitor growing heterogeneity among Whites and consider more carefully their use as an aggregate category for gauging racial inequality.

Nonresident Parent Wealth Among Children

Jake Hays; Paula Fomby

Wealth matters for children's well-being. However, most research has considered only the wealth held in children's resident households, even though more than one quarter of U.S. children have a parent living elsewhere. We provide the first national estimates of nonresident parent wealth among children who ever lived with both parents in a shared household. We use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1984–2021)—whose survey design enables us to produce unbiased estimates with respect to factors that condition access to nonresident parents—to describe the characteristics of nonresident parent wealth, children's potential access to it, and its contribution to educational attainment. We find that nonresident parent wealth varies substantially and that the rank–rank correlation between nonresident and resident parent wealth is roughly .3. Nonresident parent wealth is positively predictive of more frequent parent–child contact, more consistent and higher value child support payments, and children's bachelor's degree attainment, suggesting that it is related to multiple domains of parenting and child well-being. The findings demonstrate that accounting for the spread of resources across households, but within a family system, is critical to understanding broader patterns of inequality in American family life.

Make It or Break It? Pregnancy Scares and Romantic Relationship Dissolution

Lauren Newmyer; Scott T. Yabiku

Young adult romantic relationships have undergone significant changes in recent decades, resulting in such distinct demographic trends as rising rates of relationship dissolution. Union dissolution during young adulthood can influence future relationship stability, financial well-being, and health. Reproductive experiences are an important factor that can shape relationship stability. Much of past research, however, has focused on the impact of childbearing on relationship stability while less attention has been paid to other reproductive experiences that could also shape relationship stability, such as pregnancy scares. A pregnancy scare is when a woman suspects she has an undesired pregnancy but later discovers she is not pregnant. This experience might increase or decrease relationship stability. Drawing on data collected from young women in the Relationship Dynamics and Social Life study, this analysis examines the association between pregnancy scares and union dissolution. Results suggest that pregnancy scares are negatively associated with union dissolution, and this relationship persists over time; however, this association varies by relationship type, with serious dating relationships experiencing the most protective benefits.

Can Family Policies Enhance Fertility? An Ex Ante Evaluation Through Factorial Survey Experiments

Raffaele Guetto; Giammarco Alderotti; Daniele Vignoli

This article explores the family policies–fertility nexus by assessing the potential impact of parental leaves, childcare services, and child benefits on fertility through a factorial survey experiment (FSE). We focus on Italy, where persistently low fertility rates are often linked to limited welfare support for families. We surveyed 4,022 respondents aged 20–44 and exposed them to various scenarios characterized by different family policy packages. We asked them to ascribe short-term fertility behavior to a fictitious couple under each scenario. Results show that each family-friendly policy envisioned positively impacts ascribed fertility. The availability of full-time, public childcare services seems more relevant than higher child benefits, whereas more generous and gender-equal parental leaves are perceived as less relevant. However, results suggest that only a consistent mix of financial benefits, parental leave schemes, and childcare provisions can boost fertility. In contrast, marginal changes in single policy levers are most likely ineffective. The FSE reveals that a couple's socioeconomic status is perceived as more important than family policies for fertility: ascribed fertility increases when both partners are employed and household income is high. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our findings.

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《中國社會學學刊》(The Journal of Chinese Sociology)于2014年10月由中國社會科學院社會學研究所創(chuàng)辦。作為中國大陸第一本英文社會學學術(shù)期刊，JCS致力于為中國社會學者與國外同行的學術(shù)交流和合作打造國際一流的學術(shù)平臺。JCS由全球最大科技期刊出版集團施普林格·自然(Springer Nature)出版發(fā)行，由國內(nèi)外頂尖社會學家組成強大編委會隊伍，采用雙向匿名評審方式和“開放獲取”(open access)出版模式。JCS已于2021年5月被ESCI收錄。2022年，JCS的CiteScore分值為2.0（Q2），在社科類別的262種期刊中排名第94位，位列同類期刊前36%。2023年，JCS在科睿唯安發(fā)布的2023年度《期刊引證報告》（JCR）中首次獲得影響因子并達到1.5（Q3）。

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